'Momentous decision': Alberta separation could cost up to $170 billion, says U of C report

Source: Alberta - Edmonton Journal (Legislature & Capital)
Date: 2026-09-16 17:30:44.0
Tags: [Alberta, Economy, Finance, Governance, Taxation, Trade]

A government-commissioned report from the University of Calgary School of Public Policy estimates that establishing an independent Alberta would cost between $50 billion and $170 billion in the first five years following separation. Under a 'smooth' secession scenario, the report projects Alberta would add nearly $210 billion in debt—largely from its share of Canada's national debt—along with short-term GDP contraction and initial per-capita tax increases of over $800. Under a 'difficult' scenario involving adversarial negotiations, Alberta's total debt could approach $442 billion (making up nearly 90 per cent of its GDP) with per-capita wage losses reaching $5,500 and short-term tax increases of $5,400 over the first five years. The findings precede an October 19 vote regarding whether the province should further pursue separation, as overseen by Finance Minister Jason Nixon's office and a five-member advisory panel.